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Geopolitics
Geopolitics
All
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
June 30
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
April 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
March 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$116.0M Vol.
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Péter Magyar
70%
Yes
70%
No
30%
Viktor Orbán
31%
Yes
31%
No
69%
István Kapitány
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
János Lázár
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
László Toroczkai
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Klára Dobrev
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$55.6M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$19.6M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
December 31
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
January 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$14.1M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
30%
chance
Yes
No
$13.2M Vol.
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$8.0M Vol.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
June 30, 2026
55%
Yes
55%
No
45%
April 30, 2026
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
August 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$5.8M Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
June 30
36%
Yes
36%
No
64%
October 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
November 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
November 7
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$4.0M Vol.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
June 30, 2026
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.8M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11%
chance
Yes
No
$3.6M Vol.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
June 30, 2026
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$2.4M Vol.
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Iván Cepeda Castro
86%
Yes
86%
No
14%
Abelardo de la Espriella
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
Paloma Valencia
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Juan Manuel Galán
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Sergio Fajardo
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$2.1M Vol.
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
67%
Yes
67%
No
33%
June 30
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
April 30
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
November 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$2.1M Vol.
Ukraine election held by...?
December 31, 2026
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
June 30, 2026
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$2.0M Vol.
Russian strike on Poland by...?
June 30, 2026
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
September 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.9M Vol.
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
June 30, 2026
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.7M Vol.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
June 30, 2026
23%
Yes
23%
No
77%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
November 30
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
February 28, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.6M Vol.
Ukraine election called by...?
June 30, 2026
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
December 31, 2025
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
March 31, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.5M Vol.
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$1.0M Vol.
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
June 30
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
March 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
December 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
October 31
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
February 28
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$921k Vol.
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